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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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